CS99I Meeting 15 Notes: Databases and Prediction in Information systems

Started by Gio Wiederhold, 1 Feb 2002.

Topics Covered briefly

Databases

Definition: organized and maintained collections of data, i.e., factual information or observations.

Examples:

Much of such data is indirectly available on the web, sometimes for free, sometimes for a price.

When a client accesses such a web-site, a query must be made, specifying what in particular is wanted, and then the systems that supports the web site will retrieve the relevant data a from the database and present it as a HTML page. (use of XML may simplify that process)

 

However, such information is not available to browsers, who cannot (afford to) ask every possible queries from web sets that generate HTML pages from their databases.   That part of the web is referred to us the deep web.  Some people consider it much larger (100 x) than the visible web, but that is part due to the very large satellite image collections and similar material that are included.

 

Observational, factual databases only provide information about the past.  But for decision making we also need to know what effect decision today have in the future.   Since we don't know what the right future is we have to project multiple futures:

 

 

A decision maker in an enterprise is expected to make decision which have a positive effect on its future. Information systems should support their activities. Today, databases and web-based resources, accessed through effective communications, make information about the past rapidly available. To project the future the decision maker either has to use intuition or employ other tools, and initialize them with information obtained from an information system to such tools. An effective information system should also support forecasting the future.  Since choices are to be made, including the case of not doing anything, such a system must also support the comparative assessment of the effects of alternate decisions.  We recommend the use of an SQL-like interface language, to access existing tools to assess the future, as spreadsheets and simulations. Making results of simulations as accessible as other resources of integrated information systems has the potential of greatly augmenting their effectiveness and really support decision-making.

 

The process involves creating a list of alternatives of future actions into the future, say. failure to get a product out, including those not under your control , say a competitor gaining market share, and your reactions to that, say having to increase advertising or lower your price.

 

 

At the end of the bush will be outcomes, say financial gains or losses.

Then you can work backwards to assess the possible positive or negative effects of your next decision.

Once time goes on, you have made the decision, then the entire bush can be recalculated, maybe with some new probabilities due external changes as well, and be used to make your next decision. 

A refinement would have to include the uncertainties at each point, so that the current risk can be computed as well.

 

Pieces of the technology exist, but I know of no business that is doing it all in coherent manner.  

A great opportunity for the future.

Who will do it, who will use it first?

Notes:

See research papers on the topic in HTTP://www-db.stanford.edu/pub/gio/inprogress.html#SimQL; the slides that are there. A summary paper is Information Systems that Really Support Decision-making.